Bitcoin and cryptocurrency price predictions have made headlines in mainstream media since the start to the 2017 bull run which led Bitcoin to the level of $19,345 mid-December pulling many altcoins (cryptocurrency that is not Bitcoin) prices to all-time-high levels.
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During the latter part of 2017, excitement in the crypto market was fever-pitch resulting in FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and adding some craziness to the market. No doubt many traders took profit off the table as investors and speculators were prepared to buy on credit or mortgage their homes just to “get in”.
According to consumer group LendEDU, a whopping 18% of people purchased their cryptocurrency with a credit card but most disturbing is that 22% had not paid off their card balances and 70% argue that the interest they’re paying on that credit card debt is worth the price of owning Bitcoin. Even more concerning, 88% of the survey respondents say they plan to pay off their credit card by selling their Bitcoins. Some banks have since issued statements that they will not support cryptocurrency purchases on their credit cards.
Unfortunately, these new levels were not supported and after 17 December 2017, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices started to falter leading into the new year, 2018. The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices continued to fall during the first six months of 2018, despite expert opinion that Bitcoin is not dead yet unstoppable in its rise to much higher levels. Some Bitcoin price predictions are $1million over the longer term and $22,500 or $60,000 by the end of 2018. Who predicted what? See below…
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Related: What is Bitcoin
So, what do the so-called “experts” predict?
Of course, not everyone is bullish, there are always the bears…
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO, issued a very controversial statement in October 2017. As reported by Coindesk, Dimon said that Bitcoin is a “fraud” and that bitcoin buyers will “pay the price” if they are “stupid enough to buy it.” He has since said he regrets calling Bitcoin a “fraud” but is still not a fan of the cryptocurrency. He told Fox Business in 2018 “The bitcoin to me was always what the governments are gonna feel about bitcoin as it gets really big, and I just have a different opinion than other people. I’m not interested that much in the subject at all.”.
Other financial gurus have weighed in stating that “Bitcoin is in a bubble” after witnessing Bitcoin’s meteoric rise in 2017.
Jeremy Grantham of investment management firm GMO, told CNBC “Historical analogy suggests this junior bubble, by size, may well crash and burn even before the broad market peaks”.
“As you can see, Bitcoin dwarfs even the legendary South Sea Bubble! Having no clear fundamental value and largely unregulated markets, coupled with a storyline conducive to delusions of grandeur, makes this more than anything we can find in the history books the very essence of a bubble.” reported CNBC
“The Essence of a Bubble” graph – Bitcoin peaked last quarter of 2017 and fell in the first six months of 2018.
Source: Philip Pilkington, via Grantham via CNBC
CryptoCompare graph – 12 months from August 2017 to July 2018
This is what happened with the Bitcoin price in the first 6 months of 2018…
Live Bitcoin price chart – 1 YTD:
Allianz Global Investors warned in March 2018 and that the Bitcoin Bubble is about to burst.
“So is this the end of the hype about Bitcoin as the future of global currencies? Probably not yet, since speculation in Bitcoin and similar instruments appears set to continue for some time. Yet from our perspective, Bitcoin has serious flaws: its trajectory resembles a textbook case of a financial-market bubble, and it is lacking several key qualities that would qualify it as a currency.” stated Stefan Hofrichter, head of global economics and strategy.
A Bitcoin bubble? Some say that bubbles are not necessarily bad
One of the biggest Bitcoin bulls on Wall Street, hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz said “This is a bubble and there is a lot of froth. This is going to be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes!” He went on to state “Bubbles start around ideas that are often right” as reported by Bloomberg. Novogratz predicts Bitcoin will end on $40,000 in December 2018
So, who are the Bitcoin bulls…
Heading this list is John McAfee who believes Bitcoin is headed to $1 million.
On 17 July 2017, McAfee predicted that 1 Bitcoin will be worth $5,000 by the end of 2017 – he was wrong. Bitcoin’s price hit a high of $19,345 on 17 December 2017 and closed the year at $13,850 according to CryptoCompare stats. McAfee previously claimed that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by the end of 2020 using the same prediction model. When the Bitcoin prices rose much faster than he predicted, McAfee changed his prediction to $1 million by 2020.
How is the McAfee prediction lining up?
Vinny Lingham aka “Bitcoin Oracle” because of his successful predictions of the value of Bitcoin, believes Bitcoin only have 0,25% chance of reaching $1 million.
Since the UAHF (User Activated Hard Fork) of the Bitcoin blockchain on 1 August 2017 which formed Bitcoin Cash, Vinny Lingham told CNBC that Bitcoin as a “store of value” would be outpaced by Bitcoin Cash’s adoption as a peer-to-peer cash system. These are two different markets with Bitcoin the better choice for investors, and Bitcoin Cash as a payment system. Learn more about What is Bitcoin Cash
The Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, are extremely bullish about Bitcoin. As Bitcoin reached the highs of December 2017, the Winklevii became Bitcoin Billionaires.
In a statement to CNBC in February 2018, the Winklevoss twins said “Taking bitcoin in isolation… we believe bitcoin disrupts gold. We think it’s a better gold, if you look at the properties of money. And what makes gold gold? Scarcity. Bitcoin is actually fixed in supply so it’s better than scarce… it’s more portable, its fungible, it’s more durable. It sort of equals a better gold across the board. So, if you look at a $100 billion market cap today, now last week it might have been more like 200, so it’s actually a buying opportunity, we think that there’s a potential appreciation of 30 to 40 times, because you look at the gold market today, it’s a $7-trillion market. And so a lot of people are starting to see that, they recognize the store of value properties. So, we think regardless of the price moves in the last few weeks, it’s still a very under-appreciated asset”
Max Keiser, the host of Russia Today’s Keiser Report, believes that Bitcoin will reach a price of $100,000. Keiser says that Bitcoin’s ability to survive numerous changes and countless altcoin competitors proves it is the most dependable cryptocurrency
“Bitcoin will dominate and lead crypto going forward. Hundreds of obituaries have been written about Bitcoin and none of them have come true and none will. Fact is, Bitcoin is a gift from God to help humanity sort out the mess it has made with its money.”
Related: How to make money with crypto
Even though the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency market has slowed down during the first two quarters of 2018, Tom Lee from Fundstrat is a long time Bitcoin Bull and believes that Bitcoin will reach $25,000 by the end of 2018. His reasoning is that the price is usually 2,5 times higher than the cost of mining operations.
Mining costs continue to grow over time and as a result, Lee believes the price of Bitcoin will move above $22,000 and even up to $25,000. The mining difficulty is rising all the time and therefore, not impossible for Bitcoin to reach these price points. In an interview with Bloomberg, he stated that the complete cost to mine Bitcoin next year will be around $14,000, “reflecting the difficulty”
Jeet Singh, a cryptocurrency portfolio manager for the past six years, spoke at the World Economic Forum at Davos. He said that it is common for virtual currencies to fluctuate by 70 or 80 percent, however, as the market for bitcoin becomes more mainstream, some of the volatility should calm down as traders begin to better understand cryptocurrencies. Singh predicts: “Bitcoin could definitely see $50,000 in 2018.”
Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX, has maintained his Bitcoin price prediction despite the bear market during the past few months.
“I think something that can go up to 20k in one year can have a correction down to about 6k. I think it definitely found a bottom … but with one positive regulatory decision away, to climb to 20k or even 50k by the end of the year.”
According to Hayes’ statements on the BitMEX exchange, so far this year Bitcoin trading volume has tripled, a really good sign. Bitcoin has gone through the similar bear cycles during the past nine years, rising high before plummeting significantly and then moving on up again.
Llew Claasen, Executive Director of the Bitcoin Foundation, believes that Bitcoin will hit $40,000 in 2018 and that 90% of other cryptocurrencies will fail. There are currently more than 1600 cryptocurrencies listed on BraveNewCoin marketcap, many the result of the recent ICO (Initial Coin Offering) boom. Cryptocurrencies with strong use cases will survive.
Longtime Bitcoin Bull and Venture Capitalist, Tim Draper, believes that Bitcoin will multiply more than 30 times in the next four years.
Andreas Antonopolous, best-selling author, speaker, educator, and one of the world’s foremost bitcoin and open blockchain experts believes it very difficult to predict the Bitcoin price. As he has stated, Bitcoin “cannot be ignored or extinguished“.
“The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.” Wikipedia
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As you can see, there are the Bulls and the Bears with predictions fluctuating from low to high and everything in-between. In reality, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is still a relatively new market, a new digital economy has emerged. Volatility must be expected as our financial world grapples with this disruptive technology. In January 2018, and we questioned, “Will Regulators and Banks kill Bitcoin”
Negativity reigned in the first half of 2018 with news of large-scale hacking of Bitcoin Exchanges, Coincheck, and Bithumb, and banks shutting down cryptocurrency enterprises bank accounts, the Indian government for instance.
However, the news is starting to turn positive
Once ETF’s are listed, Bitcoin will then be accessible to thousands of traders who have accounts on the stock exchange. Traders will be able to buy a Bitcoin ETF without even having a Bitcoin wallet. Once institutional investors get involved with Bitcoin, the price could grow in value significantly.
Bitcoin’s hashrate and mining power are increasing. When Bitcoin network’s difficulty increases, the hash rate increases. The hash rate, miners profits, and difficulty depend on each other. The number of miners in the Bitcoin network increases the difficulty and the miner needs to compute more guesses per second. As per Tom Lee’s prediction and reasoning, the Bitcoin price is usually 2,5 times higher than the cost of mining operations. Mining costs will continue to grow, as should the Bitcoin price.
Two U.S. Congressional Hearings on Cryptocurrencies commenced on 18 July, 2018. Firstly, the House Committee on Financial Services held a live congressional hearing which started on 18 July in Washington, D.C. entitled “The Future of Money: Digital Currency”, followed by the House Agriculture Committee – Full story here
Switzerland leading the charge to support Bitcoin and cryptocurrency enterprises. A 150 Year Old Bank, Switzerland’s mortgage bank Hypothekarbank Lenzburg, has committed to a new strategy.
“As a bank that sets itself up technologically and pursues a cooperative strategy in the field of FinTech, it is also a matter of credibility to work together with the young sector of crypto and blockchain companies in Switzerland,” announced CEO, Marianne Wildi.
Besides the Swiss, Malta is also at the forefront of cryptocurrency enterprise acceptance and are working to set themselves up as a “blockchain island’. Binance, one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, is backing a blockchain-powered decentralized bank to be launched in Malta as reported by Bloomberg. Founders Bank has applied to obtain a license from the EU state’s government in order to officially operate its business and become the world’s “first decentralized and community-owned bank“.
Mark Carney, chairman of the Financial Stability Board, said in a letter to G20 finance leaders that crypto did not pose a significant risk to the financial system presently and of late, a few countries have supported the theory.
South Korea has also had some positive changes, as the National Assembly is set to witness numerous legislative bills in July 2018 on regulating cryptocurrencies, initial coin offerings and blockchain as reported by the Korea Times.
The social media giant, Facebook, has reversed the cryptocurrency advertising ban, although it has continued its ban on ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings). This move is a positive move for the cryptocurrency space as more users can be targetted.
On the consumer adoption front, Wirex has just launched a “crypto friendly” debit card making it easy for Bitcoiners to spend.
There are opportunities to “make money with Bitcoin” however, first and foremost, it is incumbent on you to educate yourself on “What is Bitcoin” and alternate cryptocurrencies. Follow this simple guide on “How to make money with crypto” and get started!
What are the Top Ten Drivers of the Bitcoin Price?
2. Developer Adoption
3. Consumer Adoption
4. Merchant Adoption
5. Institutional Adoption
6. Media Adoption
7. Regulatory Adoption
8. Government Adoption
9. Investor Adoption
10. Geo-Political Factors and Financial System Risk
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